The Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy firm, recently assessed global security concerns in an effort to rank which ones would be most concerning for 2018. As we draw closer to the end of the year, I thought we’d take a look at their Top 5 global security risks in an effort to anticipate what might be awaiting us in 2019 and what is no longer a high-ranking concern.
“China Fills a Vacuum as U.S. Recedes”
The group expressed concern over the potential for a global reordering as the United States reduces their involvement in Asia. The slow but noticeable recession leaves room for China to assert their strong, dominant presence in the region.
The term accidents is used loosely in this particular context, and actually refers to a broad range of geopolitical situations that could reach a boiling point in the near future. Examples include cyber attacks, terrorism, volatile action in North Korea, or “battlefield accidents” resulting from the mounting tensions between Syria, the U.S., and Russia. The report is careful to state that “we aren’t on the brink of World War III,” but that the world has indeed become a more dangerous place.
Technology Cold War on a Global Scale
Technology, in particular Artificial Intelligence, is evolving at unprecedented rates and there are a lot of countries that would like to come in first in the race for industry domination and for good reason. With China and the U.S. at the forefront of technology breakthroughs, the winner stands to gain significant economic and geopolitical traction over the next ten years.
Corruption, slow economic growth, and national security have set Mexico up for a relatively tough couple of years. When The Eurasia Group originally published the report, the U.S. stance on NAFTA was largely up in the air. As 2018 draws to a close and the G20 summit wraps up, all eyes will be on Mexico as they determine how to navigate whatever trade deal their future holds in conjunction with the voter anger that seems to be increasing in the country.
Finally, relations between Iran and the United States have been in steady decline over at least the last year. Confrontations and disagreements over the Obama-era Iran Nuclear deal resulted in U.S. withdrawal, which then impacted currency and behavior in Iran. Tensions continue to rise between the two countries, as do levels of distrust.